WHAT WILL THE FOUR TOP DOGS OF FLAMBEAU DO
The FLOGG is calling it for Chastanet. Barring the unforeseen, Chas is going to kick some Kingly ass when Flambeau heads to their Convention at the end of this month.
But why, MotherFLOGGer, you ask? Why do you say Chas will win?
|The winner and the loser|
It’s the mathematics of history and local politics. Don’t ask what that means. We don’t fully comprehend either. Suffice it to say that, The Reign of the Renegades is over. The Compton clan is coming back.
Compton was the center pole of Flambeau and when he passed away, the tent collapsed. The party never really coalesced around Compton the last time around, partly because of the Renegade element. The Renegades made a bid for power, luring many of the loose, inexperienced Compton faction. For years, it seemed that the Renegades WERE Flambeau.
But that’s not true. The Renegades were merely holding the reins while the party grieved for its crucified Compton. Mourning time is over. And now, it’s high noon at the Flambeau Corral.
Political convention democracy in St Lucia is a funny thing. Voting is individual, but for the most part, people vote in blocks. Delegates from each constituency vote for the same ticket of executive officers. When you count all the votes, you can see clearly that constituency delegates vote together.
When this does not happen, incumbents are in serious trouble.
When delegates start breaking ranks, it means the challengers are making headway. That’s what happened in 2005, when Compton usurped his successor in Soufriere. That is what is happening now.
In the end, it will come down to a ratio of about 11-6. That’s the same ratio Flambeau beat Labour by in 2006, the same ratio for Compton vs Lewis in 2005, and, of course, the same ratio Labour won by in 2011. Bets, anyone?